TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Ransom Canyon: Season 2
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Closed: Aug 3, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks predictions about which show will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows chart for the week ending August 4, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve based on Netflix's official chart published on August 4, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the same official Netflix chart with consistent ranking methodology and tiebreaker rulesPrimary resolution logic: Netflix's official global Top 10 TV shows chart published at top10.netflix.com on August 4, 2026Core resolution logic:
- Rankings are determined by total global views for the week of Monday July 28 to Sunday August 3, 2026
- Ties are broken by alphabetical order of show titles
- Kalshi markets resolve to Yes if their listed show occupies the #2 position
- Polymarket markets resolve to the show name if it occupies the #2 position, or to "Other" if the chart isn't published by August 7, 2026
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Chart Publication Delay: If Netflix does not publish the chart by August 7, 2026, Polymarket resolves to "Other" while Kalshi markets remain open until chart publication
- Multiple Shows Tied at #2: Alphabetical order determines the official #2 show for all markets
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified Netflix show occupies the #2 position on the Global Top 10 Shows chart published on August 4, 2026. The chart reflects viewership for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's release. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding timing and disclaimers stating that Netflix has not endorsed these markets or products, and any references to Netflix are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals could shift probabilities in this market before it closes. Key catalysts include weekly Netflix viewership announcements, social media trends highlighting specific titles, major marketing pushes from Netflix, or unexpected events like award nominations that boost viewer interest. Any surge in discussion volume or regional viewing spikes may also cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their bets based on fresh momentum.