TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group predicts which show will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as published on July 14, 2026. Both platforms reference the same official Netflix data source and resolution date, with Kalshi offering binary yes/no markets for specific shows and Polymarket offering similar binary outcomes plus catch-all categories.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution criteria: the official Netflix Top 10 Global Show ranking published July 14, 2026, with the #2 position determined by total global views.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows list at top10.netflix.com, updated July 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: July 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Measurement period: week of July 7-13, 2026 (Monday to Sunday)
- Metric: total global views for TV shows, English language only
- Resolution target: whichever show ranks in the #2 position on the published list
- Exactly one show will resolve to Yes; all others resolve to No
- If Netflix fails to publish by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all specific show markets resolve to No and catch-all Other markets resolve to Yes
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Publication Delay: If Netflix does not publish the Top 10 update by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other. Kalshi markets for specific shows would resolve to No.
- Tie at #2 Position: Netflix's official ranking will show a single #2 entry; ties are not expected in the published list. If Netflix lists multiple shows at #2, the show appearing first in the official ranking resolves to Yes.
- Show Not Listed: If a show does not appear in the Top 10 at all, it cannot be #2. Markets for that show resolve to No.
- Catch-All Categories: Polymarket includes Show A-G (undefined) and another show catch-all. These resolve to Yes only if the #2 show is not one of the explicitly named options.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
If I Will Find You: Limited Series is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 2 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sullivan's Crossing: Season 4 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raw: 2026 - June 29, 2026 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Danny Go!: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ms. Rachel: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity profiles, and risk tolerances. Polymarket may emphasize broader market sentiment, while Kalshi often draws specialists willing to take concentrated positions on specific outcomes. Contract design also matters: one platform might frame the question as an open-ended ranking, while the other locks in a named show, creating different information sets and betting strategies. Additionally, trading volume and fee structures vary, influencing how quickly prices adjust to new Netflix viewership data or social signals.
Major catalysts include new episode releases, celebrity news tied to cast members, and real-time viewership reports from third-party tracking services. Social media trends, award nominations, and critical reviews can shift trader sentiment rapidly. Competitive releases from other platforms may also redirect viewers, affecting Netflix's rankings. Additionally, any Netflix algorithm changes or promotional pushes for specific titles could influence weekly positioning. Traders typically react to early viewership data, trending hashtags, and entertainment news cycles, so staying alert to streaming industry developments is essential for anticipating price moves.