TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
War Machine
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 24, 2026
Closed: Mar 24, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 32
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies chart for the week ending March 24, 2026. Both platforms are asking the same core question but with different candidate movie lists and structural approaches.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different candidate movie lists and resolution structures. Kalshi defines 11 specific movies with implicit "None of the Above" risk, while Polymarket explicitly includes 21 named candidates plus an "other" catch-all and a technical fallback to "Other" if Netflix does not publish by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Hero tip: Identify the actual #2 movie on Netflix's March 24, 2026 chart. If it matches a movie on both platforms (Nobody 2, War Machine, KPop Demon Hunters, Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man), both resolve Yes. If the #2 movie appears only on Polymarket's list or is not on either list, Polymarket's "other" question resolves Yes while Kalshi may face ambiguity. Monitor Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update by 3:00 PM ET on March 24, 2026, and verify publication by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to avoid Polymarket's "Other" fallback.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Fixed list of 11 named movies. Resolves Yes if any of Nobody 2, Jurassic World Rebirth, KPop Demon Hunters, Trap House, War Machine, Nuremberg, The Captive, Jurassic World: Dominion, Trolls, Gaslit By My Husband: The Morgan Metzer Story, or Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man ranks #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published March 24, 2026. No explicit resolution path for movies outside this list.
- Polymarket: 21 individual binary questions covering named movies (Saw: The Final Chapter, Jigsaw, Saw, Nobody 2, War Machine, KPop Demon Hunters, Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man, 27 Dresses, Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere) and 12 placeholder movies (A-K), plus a catch-all question 'Will another movie be #2'. Includes technical fallback: if top10.netflix.com does not update by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to 'Other'.