TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$20,920
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending March 9, 2026, based on the official update published on March 10, 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are running parallel markets with overlapping but distinct candidate movie lists to predict this single outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi define different candidate movie sets for the same underlying event (#2 Netflix movie on March 10, 2026). Polymarket includes generic placeholders and a fallback "Other" option; Kalshi lists only named titles with no fallback mechanism.Hero Tip:
Monitor Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. If the #2 movie is a named title appearing on both platforms (e.g., Jurassic World Rebirth, The Addams Family, KPop Demon Hunters), both markets resolve YES for that title. If the #2 movie is not on Kalshi's list, Polymarket resolves to "Other" while Kalshi has no matching outcome—verify candidate lists before trading to avoid settlement disputes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Offers 19 binary questions covering named titles (Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Nuremberg, The Addams Family, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kpop Demon Hunters, War Machine) and generic placeholders (Movie A through Movie K). Includes fallback: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.' Resolution source: Netflix's official global Top 10 Movies list (English only) published March 10, 2026, 3:00 PM ET.
- Kalshi: Offers 11 binary outcomes, each tied to a specific named movie (KPop Demon Hunters, Joe's College Road Trip, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Firebreak, The Orphans, Fall, Jurassic World Rebirth, Trap House, The Addams Family, The Expendables 4, Accused). No fallback or 'Other' option. Resolution source: Netflix's official Top 10 Global Movie chart published March 10, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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