TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting Netflix’s weekly movie rankings is a relatively new area of focus. However, if analysts were to predict the #2 global Netflix movie, their predictions could be contrasted with the implied probabilities reflected in this market. Discrepancies between analyst opinions and the market’s collective wisdom could present interesting opportunities for informed traders. It’s important to remember that this market represents the aggregated predictions of many individuals.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares of each possible outcome, and the price of a share reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people trade, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price discovery process allows for a dynamic and efficient assessment of the likelihood of each film taking the #2 spot.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the #2 global Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official Netflix rankings or widely recognized third-party data sources tracking global viewership. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that is determined to be the #2 global Netflix movie during the specified week, and 0% for all other outcomes. This ensures a clear and objective resolution process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected releases of highly anticipated films on Netflix could shift viewership and alter the rankings. Major marketing campaigns or critical acclaim for a particular movie could also drive increased viewership. Additionally, news regarding popular shows ending or new seasons being released could influence viewing habits. Finally, any data leaks or early reports on viewership numbers, even if unofficial, could cause traders to adjust their positions in this market, leading to price fluctuations.