TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
A Toxic Love Story
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Closed: Aug 3, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks which movie will occupy the #2 position on Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies list for the week ending August 4, 2026. The resolution depends on Netflix's official chart published on August 4, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the same Netflix Global Top 10 Movies chart published on August 4, 2026, using identical ranking and tie-breaking rules.Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Global Top 10 Movies chart published on top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- The #2 movie is determined by Netflix's official Global Top 10 Movies chart published on August 4, 2026.
- Ranking is based on total global views for the week.
- Ties are broken by alphabetical order of movie titles.
- If the chart is not published by August 7, 2026, markets resolve to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Chart Not Published: If Netflix does not publish the chart by August 7, 2026, all markets resolve to 'Other'.
- Tie-Breaker: If two movies are tied for #2, the tie is broken by alphabetical order of the movie titles.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if its specified movie appears in the #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published on August 4, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before August 4. The published chart reflects viewing data from the preceding week, ending the Sunday before August 4. None of these markets imply any endorsement from Netflix, which is mentioned only for descriptive clarity. Resolution depends solely on the objective chart ranking at the specified time.
Frequently asked questions
Key signals that could shift odds in this market include last-minute viewing surges driven by social media trends, influencer endorsements, or unexpected hype around competing titles. Platform-specific volume spikes on Polymarket or Kalshi may also signal shifting trader sentiment, as could any announcement of special promotions or award buzz that alters viewer preferences just before the final count.