TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Voicemails for Isabelle
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 20, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending July 21, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the same underlying fact: Netflix's official ranking published on July 21, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET on top10.netflix.com.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi defines a closed set of 10 named movies with no explicit fallback for other outcomes, while Polymarket includes named movies, 7 placeholder movies, and an "other" catch-all, creating potential for unresolvable or conflicting outcomes if the #2 movie falls outside Kalshi's candidate list.Hero tip: Before trading, confirm with both platforms: (1) If Netflix's #2 movie is not in Kalshi's 10-movie list, does Kalshi resolve to No or remain unresolved? (2) What do Polymarket's placeholder movies (Movie A-G) represent—are they pre-defined or data-driven? (3) Will both platforms use the exact same Netflix data source, timestamp (July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET), and ranking methodology?Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Closed-set binary model: 10 named movies (Enola Holmes 3, Voicemails for Isabelle, Little Brother, Retribution, Swapped, KPop Demon Hunters, Maternal Instinct, Paradise City, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Boss Baby). Each market resolves Yes if that movie ranks #2. No explicit "Other" or fallback resolution path defined. Quote: 'If [movie] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie on the chart published on Jul 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Open-set multi-outcome model: 11 named movies (Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea, Enola Holmes 3, The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Heartstopper Forever, Old Henry, White Chicks, Voicemails for Isabelle, The Doorman, KPop Demon Hunters) plus 7 placeholder movies (Movie A-G) plus "another movie" catch-all. Resolves to "Other" if no Netflix update by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Quote: 'This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".'
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 Global Movie chart published on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 20, 2026, the day before publication. The event resolves to Yes if any of the specified movies achieves the #2 ranking on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate decentralized trader bets rather than expert opinion. Traders with skin in the game update odds continuously as new data emerges—viewership patterns, social media momentum, and competing releases all factor in. While analysts may publish weekly rankings or projections, this market's odds reflect live market pricing, which often incorporates information faster than formal forecasts. The two approaches complement each other: markets show what traders believe will happen, while analysts provide narrative context and reasoning.
Major catalysts include new film releases on Netflix, unexpected viewership surges driven by social media or celebrity endorsements, and competitive releases from rival platforms. Real-world events tied to cast or crew can amplify interest in specific titles. Netflix's own marketing pushes and regional viewing trends also influence global rankings. Additionally, early-week viewership data leaks or industry reports about streaming performance may shift trader expectations. Monitoring entertainment news, social sentiment, and Netflix's promotional calendar will help you anticipate significant market moves before resolution.