TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Voicemails for Isabelle
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Closed: Jul 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank as #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list based on the official update published on July 7, 2026. Multiple prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on which specific movie will occupy that #2 position, with resolution tied to Netflix's official viewership rankings.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi specify different candidate movie lists for the #2 Netflix ranking, with Polymarket including a catch-all "Other" option and placeholder movies, while Kalshi lists only 10 concrete titles with no fallback mechanism.Hero tip: Verify which movies are actually in Netflix's Top 10 rotation before July 7, 2026. If the true #2 movie is not on Kalshi's 10-title list, Kalshi's market will have no valid resolution path. Polymarket's "Other" option provides a safety net. Consider the overlap: only KPop Demon Hunters, Voicemails for Isabelle, and Little Brother appear on both platforms' lists.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves on Netflix Top 10 Global Movies (English only) update on July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Covers 11 named movies (Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Choral, Enola Holmes 3, Talk to Me, Gone Girl, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Brother, GOAT, Maternal Instinct, Voicemails for Isabelle), 7 placeholder movies (A-G), and an "Other" catch-all. Fallback to "Other" if no update by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kalshi: Resolves on Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published July 7, 2026. Covers exactly 10 specific movies (Maternal Instinct, Turbo, Swapped, The Contractor, 5lbs of Pressure, KPop Demon Hunters, The Creator, Voicemails for Isabelle, Little Brother, Office Romance). No catch-all or fallback option; if #2 is not one of these 10, resolution is undefined.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 Global Movie chart published on July 7, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 6, 2026, the day before the chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified movie ranks at position #2 on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds due to variations in trader liquidity, user base composition, and platform-specific rules around order types and settlement timing. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Smaller or more specialized trader communities on one platform can create temporary mispricings, while differences in how each platform interprets Netflix's official rankings may also contribute. Arbitrage-minded traders often exploit these spreads, though transaction costs and withdrawal friction can prevent prices from converging completely.
Major catalysts include new movie releases on Netflix, unexpected viewership surges driven by social media trends, and shifts in international viewing patterns. Celebrity news, award nominations, or viral moments tied to specific films can rapidly reshape demand. Additionally, changes in Netflix's algorithm recommendations or promotional strategy may influence which titles gain traction. Real-time viewership data leaks or industry reports about streaming performance can also trigger sharp repricing as traders update their forecasts closer to the resolution window.