TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 Global Movies list published at top10.netflix.com on April 28, 2026 at 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs on April 28, 2026 when Netflix publishes its weekly global Top 10 movies chart
- The chart reflects viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)
- The movie ranked in the #2 position determines which market resolves Yes
- All listed candidate movies (Husband Father Killer, Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle, KPop Demon Hunters, Roommates, Nobody Dumps My Daughter, 180, Untold Jail Blazers, Thrash, The Requin, Halloween Ends, The Travellers, Lainey Wilson Keepin Country Cool, Mass, and others) are mutually exclusive
- If no listed movie occupies the #2 position, the Other/catch-all option resolves Yes
- Rankings are based on total global views in English-language movies only
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Netflix update delay or failure: If Netflix does not publish the Top 10 update by May 1, 2026 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to Other/No
- Tie or ranking ambiguity: Netflix's official published ranking is the sole arbiter; no secondary interpretation is permitted
- Movie not on list: If the #2 movie is not among the pre-listed candidates on either platform, the Other/catch-all option resolves Yes
- Data scope (English only): Only English-language movies are counted in Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies ranking per Polymarket specification
Timing:
Resolution date: April 28, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET (Netflix chart publication). Fallback deadline: May 1, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If no update by fallback deadline, markets resolve to Other/No.Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.