TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket includes placeholder movie titles (Movie A-K) and an 'other' catch-all option, while Kalshi specifies only concrete, named titles. This creates a scope mismatch where Polymarket's resolution set is broader and less defined than Kalshi's.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, your YES bet on a named movie (e.g., Anaconda) could lose if a placeholder movie (Movie A, Movie B, etc.) resolves as #2 instead, even though Kalshi would not recognize that outcome. Conversely, if you trade on Kalshi, you are protected against ambiguity but have fewer outcome options. Verify which actual movies are in Netflix's top 10 before settlement to avoid confusion between placeholder and real titles.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES if the named movie is ranked #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 Movies list as published on April 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Includes 22 outcome options: 10 placeholder titles (Movie A through Movie K), 9 named real movies (Anaconda, Beast, Black and Blue, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, A Quiet Place Part II, The Truth & Tragedy of Moriah Wilson, Untold: Jail Blazers, Untold: The life & Life of Lamar Odom, Thrash), and a catch-all 'another movie' option. If Netflix does not publish by April 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolves to 'Other'.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if the specified movie is ranked #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 Movies chart published on April 21, 2026. Includes 10 outcome options: all concrete, named titles (Thrash, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Madagascar, The Fifth Element, The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson, Anaconda, Untold: The Death & Life of Lamar Odom, Beast (English), Black and Blue, KPop Demon Hunters). No placeholder titles or catch-all option; no explicit fallback rule if Netflix fails to publish.
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