TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Doctor Banner
- Polymarket
Doctor Banner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 17, 2026
Closed: Jul 31, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to release July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the next official trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day released after market creation. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no new trailers for Spider-Man: Brand New Day have been released by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the next official trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day from any of the following YouTube channels: https://www.youtube.com/@spiderman/videos https://www.youtube.com/@sonypictures/videos https://www.youtube.com/@marvel/videos https://www.youtube.com/@Sony/videos Reruns or re-releases of previously available trailers will not be considered. Shorts or videos other than trailers for Spider-Man: Brand New Day will not be considered.
Polymarket
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled to release July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the next official trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day released after market creation. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no new trailers for Spider-Man: Brand New Day have been released by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the next official trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day from any of the following YouTube channels: https://www.youtube.com/@spiderman/videos https://www.youtube.com/@sonypictures/videos https://www.youtube.com/@marvel/videos https://www.youtube.com/@Sony/videos Reruns or re-releases of previously available trailers will not be considered. Shorts or videos other than trailers for Spider-Man: Brand New Day will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and collective trader conviction rather than individual expert opinion. While entertainment analysts might speculate about plot direction or character focus based on studio hints, this market aggregates the bets of many participants with skin in the game. The odds here tend to update faster than published forecasts when new information emerges, making them a dynamic alternative to static pundit predictions.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares of each outcome, with the price of each share reflecting the implied probability of that dialogue appearing in the trailer. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more capital flowing into a particular outcome, the higher its price climbs. This continuous auction mechanism means odds shift in real time as new information surfaces or trader sentiment changes, creating a dynamic market that responds instantly to any studio announcements or leaked footage.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, once the next Spider-Man trailer has been publicly released and the specific dialogue can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the trailer's actual dialogue against each market outcome, with resolution confirmed through credible public sources such as official studio releases, verified clips, or widely reported transcripts. Traders will know the result as soon as the trailer goes live and the dialogue is documented.
Major catalysts include official studio announcements about the trailer's release date, leaked footage or behind-the-scenes clips, casting news, plot details from interviews with directors or actors, and social media teasers from Marvel or Sony. Any hint about the film's storyline, villain reveal, or character arcs could shift trader expectations about what dialogue will feature. Additionally, the trailer's actual premiere—whether surprise-dropped or formally scheduled—will trigger final price movements as traders position ahead of resolution.
