TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will be said in the next Avengers: Doomsday trailer?
kalshi
polymarket

What will be said in the next Avengers: Doomsday trailer?

Volume:
$181,542

Before Aug 1, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 10:54 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$29,700
N/A
N/A
$17,212
3mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Before September

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,144
N/A
N/A
$3,266
3mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

Brother

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$412
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
Yes
kalshi

Before June

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$49,772
N/A
N/A
$15,505
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before July

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,494
N/A
N/A
$9,823
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before May

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
$30,963
N/A
N/A
$9,826
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before March

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
$8,103
N/A
N/A
$3,516
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before April

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
$5,765
N/A
N/A
$4,107
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before February

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$3,723
N/A
N/A
$1,602
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

-No Qualifying Event-

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,681
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Wakanda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5.8¢
N/A
$2,524
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Fantastic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$898
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Space

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$770
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Son

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$697
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Avenger

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Tony

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$601
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Professor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$589
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Kang

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$524
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

World / Planet

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$520
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Multiverse / Universe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Strange

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
8.2¢
N/A
$456
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Peter / Parker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$428
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Mutant

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$386
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Doom / Doomsday 5+ times

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$384
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
polymarket

Hulk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$361
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 5d
No
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

This event group contains two distinct prediction markets about the next Avengers: Doomsday trailer. Kalshi markets focus on whether an official trailer will be released by various dates in 2026, while Polymarket markets focus on specific words or phrases that will be spoken during that trailer. The core binary event is the release and content of the official Avengers: Doomsday trailer.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different resolution criteria. Kalshi resolves on trailer release timing alone; Polymarket resolves on both trailer release and specific spoken content. Additionally, Kalshi's eight conditions are logically redundant (all resolve YES if any date threshold is met), creating a single binary outcome rather than eight independent markets.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi as a single unified binary: Will an official Avengers: Doomsday trailer release by Sep 1, 2026? Treat each Polymarket question as independent, but all depend on the prerequisite that a trailer releases by Dec 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If you believe no trailer will release by Dec 18, 2026, bet NO on all Polymarket word-detection markets and YES on the "No Qualifying Event" bracket. If you believe a trailer will release, analyze word frequency separately for each term.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Eight markets all resolve YES if an official trailer is released by any of these dates: Feb 1, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1, Jun 1, Jul 1, Aug 1, or Sep 1, 2026. These are cumulative conditions; the effective market is a single binary: trailer release by Sep 1, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels [DATE], then the market resolves to Yes.' Logical redundancy: conditions 1-7 are subsumed by condition 8 (Before Sep 1, 2026).
  • Polymarket: Twenty markets resolve based on (1) trailer release by Dec 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, AND (2) specific word/phrase detection within that trailer. If no trailer releases, all word-detection markets resolve NO and the 'No Qualifying Event' bracket resolves YES. Key Quote: 'If no new trailers for Avengers: Doomsday have been released by December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to Yes and all other brackets will resolve to No.' Resolution source: Marvel YouTube channel official trailer only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled to release December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the next official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday released after market creation. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no new trailers for Avengers: Doomsday have been released by December 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the next official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday from the following YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Marvel/videos Reruns or re-releases of previously available trailers will not be considered. Shorts or videos other than trailers for Avengers: Doomsday will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

Kalshi

The market resolves based on whether the official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday is publicly released worldwide through official channels by specified dates. An official trailer is defined as the primary trailer released by the studio and labeled as official, intended as the main worldwide marketing trailer with extended footage and clear story elements. Teaser trailers, short preview clips, TV spots, or promotional videos labeled as teasers do not qualify. The media must be made available through at least one official distribution channel including theatrical release, streaming, physical media, or authorized digital purchase without requiring special invitations or industry credentials. Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrents do not qualify. Different versions of substantially identical content are considered the same media, as are foreign language titles unless otherwise specified.

Frequently asked questions

The Avengers: Doomsday trailer dialogue market aggregates prediction activity across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking what specific words or phrases will appear in the official trailer. This market focuses on dialogue predictions rather than plot points or visual elements. Traders speculate on character lines, iconic phrases, or thematic language that Marvel Studios may feature in promotional material. The dashboard consolidates volume and odds across both venues, giving you a real-time consensus view of what the prediction community expects to hear. These cross-platform insights help identify which dialogue outcomes command the strongest conviction among professional and retail traders.

Prediction markets like those tracking this event operate on a fundamentally different model than traditional analyst forecasts. Rather than relying on expert opinion, these platforms aggregate the collective judgment of thousands of traders with real financial stakes in accuracy. Market prices reflect continuous updates as new information emerges, whereas analyst reports are typically static snapshots. Traders who consistently make poor predictions lose money, creating a natural selection mechanism that rewards accuracy. This dynamic pricing often captures emerging sentiment faster than traditional media analysis, making prediction markets a complementary data source for entertainment industry watchers.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Official Marvel announcements about trailer release dates would tighten pricing around timing expectations. Comic-Con panels, investor calls, or studio interviews mentioning trailer content could trigger repricing. Leaks or behind-the-scenes footage circulating online might reveal dialogue hints. Broader MCU news—casting changes, director statements, or plot rumors—could influence trader expectations about character presence and thematic messaging. As the trailer release date approaches, anticipation typically increases volume and volatility. Finally, any competing entertainment events or industry news could redirect attention and liquidity away from this market.