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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 28, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Episode 2 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on June 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person's first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "Joe / Biden 5+ times," a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered.
Polymarket
Episode 2 of House of the Dragon Season 3 is scheduled to air on June 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the specified episode of House of the Dragon. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person's first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "Joe / Biden 5+ times," a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). If this episode of House of the Dragon has not been released in its entirety by June 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of House of the Dragon. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets rather than expert opinion. Traders on this market stake capital on specific dialogue outcomes, creating incentives for accuracy that often reveal signals missed by conventional analysis. While entertainment analysts may rely on script leaks or showrunner interviews, prediction markets incorporate broader audience expectations and betting patterns, sometimes converging on probabilities that diverge meaningfully from pundit consensus.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts share purchases into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as whether a specific word or phrase will be spoken—is represented as a separate contract, and the combined value of all shares in a given outcome determines its implied odds. As traders buy or sell shares ahead of the episode's air date, prices fluctuate to reflect shifting sentiment about which dialogue will actually appear.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the second episode of House of the Dragon: Season 3 has aired and the dialogue can be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by whether the specific phrases or words in each contract are actually spoken during the episode. Traders who correctly predicted the dialogue receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Market prices could shift significantly if promotional clips, trailers, or behind-the-scenes content hint at specific character dialogue or plot developments. Cast interviews or showrunner commentary about episode themes may also influence trader expectations. As the air date approaches, leaked scripts or spoilers from early screeners could trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, broader House of the Dragon fandom discussions and social media speculation about character arcs often drive trading volume and sentiment shifts in this market.
