TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 12, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Episode 2 of Big Brother Season 28 is scheduled to air on July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the named episode of Big Brother. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Terms audible in background music will not be considered toward the resolution of this market. If this episode of Big Brother has not been released in its entirety by July 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of Big Brother. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Episode 2 of Big Brother Season 28 is scheduled to air on July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone says the listed term during the named episode of Big Brother. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Terms audible in background music will not be considered toward the resolution of this market. If this episode of Big Brother has not been released in its entirety by July 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has been released up to that point. If no episode has been released by this time, or if the release is otherwise definitively cancelled, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the initial release of the named episode of Big Brother. Reruns, re-releases, or transcripts which differ from the initially released episode will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trading by informed participants with financial stakes in accuracy. While entertainment analysts may rely on script leaks, production patterns, or historical precedent, this market reflects live consensus from traders continuously updating their positions. Prediction markets tend to aggregate dispersed knowledge more efficiently than individual expert opinion, though both approaches have merit. The key difference is that market prices adjust instantly to breaking news or rumors, whereas analyst predictions remain static until formally revised.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is represented as a separate contract, and the price of each reflects the likelihood traders assign to that quote appearing in Episode 2. As more capital flows into a particular outcome, its price rises and others adjust downward to maintain the market's internal consistency. Traders profit by buying low and selling high, or by correctly predicting which quotes will materialize before prices adjust.
This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once Episode 2 has aired and the specific dialogue can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual quotes spoken during the episode against each market outcome, with results confirmed through credible public reporting and episode transcripts. Traders holding shares in outcomes that match the verified dialogue receive their payout, while incorrect predictions expire worthless. The resolution process is transparent and typically completed within days of the episode's broadcast.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before Jul 12, 2026. Leaked scripts, cast interviews, or behind-the-scenes footage hinting at episode content would likely trigger sharp repricing. Social media speculation and fan theories can also drive trading volume and sentiment. Production announcements, contestant eliminations, or surprise twists revealed in promotional clips may alter trader expectations about which quotes are most probable. Additionally, real-time discussion during the episode's broadcast itself will cause rapid price swings as viewers confirm or contradict pre-episode predictions.