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What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
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Commodities
polymarket

What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)

Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM EST - Sep 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$125
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$707
344%
Open interest:
$104N/A

Under 40%

 - Polymarket

Under 40% - Polymarket

50%

-48.5%

1W

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Neutral

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Aug 25

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Aug 27

Vol.

$104.2

·

Resolves Sep 4, 2026

Time left: 07d:20h:11m

What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)

50%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 50¢ buys you 200 shares | Odds: 50% Total Payout: $200 | Net Profit: $100 Multiplier: 2.00x | ROI: 100% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 4

Description

This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections. If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap. If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.

Polymarket

This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections. If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap. If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the short_topic dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for this commodities event, alongside 24-hour volume of $125. You can view how traders price the likelihood of drought conditions affecting U.S. cattle inventory for the week of September 1, with charts showing recent trends and liquidity depth.

Currently, this market shows a strong tilt toward higher drought coverage, reflected in the leading outcome’s probability. That level differs noticeably from many recent analyst reports, which have been more split on regional severity. Traders appear to price in a broader or more intense drought pattern than most polling-based forecasts suggest at this stage.

On Polymarket, traders currently assign a high probability to the outcome, reflecting strong confidence in the projected drought levels for U.S. cattle areas. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts continuously based on new agricultural reports, weather forecasts, and inventory data releases that could shift expectations for drought coverage in the cattle inventory region.

This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage will be calculated based on authoritative U.S. agricultural or climate data sources for the week of September 1, and the market will close accordingly.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 4, 2026. Key drivers include updated U.S. drought monitor maps, regional rainfall patterns, and USDA cattle inventory reports. Any sudden climate shifts or government aid announcements may also reshape market expectations about the percentage of cattle land experiencing drought conditions during the target week.