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Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 18, 2026
Time left: 03d:07h:20m
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?
$
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants believe there is a high probability that "Whalefall"’s opening weekend box office will be less than 8m. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which predict a higher opening weekend gross. It’s important to remember that analyst predictions are based on models and expert opinion, while this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to differing methodologies and information available to each group.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the opening weekend box office will be less than 8m, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will rise, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official opening weekend box office numbers for "Whalefall" are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported domestic opening weekend box office gross, as reported by a widely recognized source for box office data. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated adjustments on Polymarket after the resolution date, and payouts will be distributed accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 18, 2026. Early ticket sales data, pre-release reviews, and social media buzz surrounding "Whalefall" could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news about the film, such as a major cast member controversy or a change in marketing strategy, could also have a significant impact. Additionally, the performance of competing films released around the same time could affect expectations for "Whalefall"’s box office potential, causing traders to adjust their positions.
