TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 7:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second half of a college football game between Western Kentucky and Indiana. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team during that half to determine the outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second half (including overtime) of the Western Kentucky vs Indiana college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. For markets where Indiana must win by a specified margin, resolution occurs if Indiana's second-half point differential exceeds that threshold. Conversely, markets requiring Western Kentucky to win resolve if their second-half margin surpasses the stated threshold. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, determined independently for each threshold level. No markets consider first-half performance or total game outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a particular spread is likely, the price will move accordingly, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts regarding the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges toward what the collective believes is the true probability. The current top market on Kalshi is for Indiana wins 2H by over 29.5 points, though probabilities are subject to change with ongoing trading activity.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the second half of the Western Kentucky vs Indiana game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college basketball. Traders who hold contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The exact payout will depend on the final price of the contract at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Western Kentucky or Indiana teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team strategy or starting lineups could also shift the market. Additionally, public perception and betting trends, even outside of Kalshi, can influence trader behavior and move the price. Unexpected developments during the first half of the game could also lead to substantial shifts in this market as traders react to the unfolding events.