TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the auction outcome for a specific artwork by Wayne Thiebaud at a Sotheby's sale. The focus is on determining whether the final sale price exceeds various monetary thresholds during a scheduled auction event.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the final sale price of Wayne Thiebaud's "Landscape" (lot 109) at the Sotheby's Contemporary Curated auction scheduled for October 7, 2026, at 11:00 AM EDT (sale N12254). Multiple markets exist with different price thresholds ranging from above $200K to above $400K. A market resolves to "Yes" if the artwork's final sale price meets or exceeds its specific threshold. The outcome for all markets is verified using the "Lot Sold" amount displayed on the Sotheby’s website immediately following the auction. If the sale price is reported in a currency other than USD, it will be converted using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of verification. Neither Sotheby’s nor any associated entities endorse these markets, and references to Sotheby’s are used descriptively without implying affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the Thiebaud Landscape sale price. However, the prediction market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a collective assessment of the likely outcome. If art market analysts generally believe the painting will exceed a certain value, we would expect to see the odds on Kalshi shift accordingly. Conversely, if analysts anticipate a lower sale price, the market should reflect that expectation. It's a dynamic comparison, as both market odds and analyst opinions can evolve leading up to the auction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the final sale price of the Thiebaud Landscape will be above a specified amount. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the market price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. Essentially, traders are betting against each other, establishing a real-time estimate of the artwork's potential value.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final sale price of the Wayne Thiebaud Landscape (lot 109) is verifiable from credible public reporting following the Sotheby's auction. The resolution will be based on the hammer price achieved during the live auction event. The market will determine whether the final sale price falls above or below the levels currently offered for trading on Kalshi. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on the actual outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Any news regarding the condition of the painting, pre-auction estimates from Sotheby's, or broader trends in the art market could influence trading activity. Strong bidding activity on similar works by Wayne Thiebaud in other auctions could also shift expectations. Furthermore, economic indicators or changes in collector sentiment could play a role. Unexpected publicity surrounding the painting or the auction itself could also lead to increased volume and price fluctuations in this market.
