TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 12:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This group forecasts the outcome of a soccer match between Watford FC and Stoke City FC scheduled for September 12, 2026. Markets predict whether Watford will win, Stoke City will win, or the game will end in a draw, all within the standard 90 minutes of play plus stoppage time.
This event is for the upcoming EFL Championship game, scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 between Watford FC and Stoke City FC.
The event resolves based on the official result of the Watford vs Stoke professional EFL Championship soccer match scheduled for September 12, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Watford wins, the 'Watford' market resolves to Yes; if Stoke wins, the 'Stoke' market resolves to Yes; and if the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The event does not consider outcomes determined by extra time or penalty kicks, and Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league.
This market resolves to "YES" if the listed club wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, in the match scheduled for September 12, 2026, 14:00 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO." If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is not completed as scheduled for any reason (for example, if it is abandoned, canceled, or awarded), and an official final result is recognized by the governing body or event organizers, this market will resolve based on that result. If no official final result is recognized and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "NO." Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin, while prediction markets allow traders to directly express their beliefs. This market’s odds reflect the collective intelligence of participants who are financially incentivized to be accurate. Consequently, prediction markets can sometimes provide more accurate forecasts, particularly when there’s significant public interest and trading volume. The difference can also stem from differing information access and analysis among market participants versus sportsbook analysts.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Each platform has a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information regarding the Watford vs. Stoke City match. Trading volume can also vary significantly between the two platforms, impacting price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market design and fee structures on each platform can influence trading behavior. For example, Polymarket currently favors a specific outcome at a certain percentage, while Kalshi leans toward another outcome, reflecting these differing dynamics.