TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Yung Miami's album "Watch Dis" during a specific week in 2026, focusing on how many album equivalent units are sold. Album equivalent units combine traditional sales with streaming and other metrics to reflect overall popularity. The outcome depends on whether the album meets or exceeds various sales thresholds.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for album equivalent units of Yung Miami's "Watch Dis" during the tracking week of October 23, 2026, to October 29, 2026. Each threshold—ranging from above 5K to above 100K units—has a corresponding market that resolves to Yes if the reported units surpass that level. All markets draw their data from Luminate’s API, which reports the final figures at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Luminate acts as a neutral metrics provider and does not influence market outcomes. The U.S. is the sole territory considered for these measurements.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prediction market offers a different perspective than many analyst forecasts for the first week sales of the Watch Dis album. While some analysts predict a conservative sales range based on the artist’s previous work, this market reflects a broader range of possibilities, incorporating information and opinions from a diverse group of traders. This allows for a more dynamic and potentially accurate assessment of the album’s potential success, as it’s constantly updated based on new information and changing sentiment. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the album’s first-week equivalent units. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of the market’s expectations. The current price indicates what traders believe is a fair value for the probability of each sales level.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-week album equivalent units for the Watch Dis album are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data released by official music industry tracking sources, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning outcome. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on any late-breaking news or information regarding the album’s performance. The final price will reflect the market’s final assessment of the album’s success.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Pre-release streaming numbers, early album reviews from prominent music critics, and social media buzz surrounding the album's release are all potential catalysts. Unexpected promotional appearances by the artist, or any major news related to the album's production or distribution, could also move the market. Strong initial sales reports from major retailers will be particularly influential, as they provide concrete data on consumer demand. Any shifts in these factors will likely be reflected in the trading activity and price fluctuations within this market.
