TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which Dallas player or unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game against Washington. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by game performance.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or unit scores the first touchdown for Dallas in the designated game. If the designated participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a participant takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to whether that participant scores the first Dallas touchdown. If Dallas fails to score any touchdowns during the game, the 'No Dallas Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player and unit markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each possible outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to balance action and ensure profit, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both prediction market prices and sportsbook odds will adjust. However, prediction markets often become more accurate closer to the event, potentially offering a more refined probability assessment than traditional sportsbooks, though this isn't always the case.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the game gets, the more volatile the price may become as new information emerges. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, and the price dynamically updates to reflect the latest market sentiment regarding the first Dallas touchdown.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on determining which team scores the first touchdown in the game. The official game statistics will be used to verify the outcome. The platform will then determine the winning contracts based on which outcome actually occurred during the game. This process ensures a transparent and reliable resolution for all participants in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Washington or Dallas would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing game, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game might influence trader sentiment. Finally, late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could also contribute to price volatility in this market.