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Closed: Jun 27, 8:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Bettors predict the winner of the first five innings of the Washington vs Baltimore game on June 27, 2026, or whether the score will be tied after five innings.
This event determines which team leads or if the game is tied after the first five innings of the Washington vs Baltimore game scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT. The Washington outcome resolves to Yes if Washington has more runs than Baltimore at the end of five innings. The Baltimore outcome resolves to Yes if Baltimore has more runs than Washington at the end of five innings. The Tie outcome resolves to Yes if both teams have scored the same number of runs at the end of five innings; when a tie occurs, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and both team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes, within two days. Resolution is based on the official score at the completion of the fifth inning.
Prediction market odds on platforms like Kalshi often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect real-time trader sentiment rather than bookmaker pricing models. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets are driven by supply and demand among participants. This market may show different implied probabilities than major sportsbooks, especially as game time approaches and new information emerges. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd's expectations differ from professional oddsmakers, though both reflect genuine uncertainty about the first five innings outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate of all active traders at that moment. As new money flows in or sentiment shifts, prices adjust in real time. Traders profit by buying low and selling high, or by correctly predicting which outcome will occur. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as liquidity increases, making it cheaper to enter or exit positions.
This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the first five innings of the Washington-Baltimore game are complete and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the final score or result recorded at the end of the fifth inning, confirmed through official game records and sports reporting. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. Resolution is automatic once the event concludes and the data is confirmed.
Several factors can shift odds before the first pitch. Injury announcements or lineup changes for either team will trigger repricing, as will weather updates affecting playing conditions. Betting action on external sportsbooks can signal sharp money and influence trader behavior here. Pregame commentary from analysts and team news released hours before game time may sway sentiment. As game time approaches, real-time developments like late scratches or bullpen decisions can cause sharp moves. Once play begins, early scoring or pitching performance during the first five innings will drive continuous price adjustments as traders react to unfolding action.