TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox?

Volume:
$964,745

Over 8.5 runs scored

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 9:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 8.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53,969
N/A
N/A
$35,969
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,152
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,287
N/A
N/A
$21,060
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26,194
N/A
N/A
$13,581
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 6.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,236
N/A
N/A
$5,865
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 3.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,391
N/A
N/A
$5,004
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 4.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,746
N/A
N/A
$2,595
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 2.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,662
N/A
N/A
$2,461
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Washington Nationals vs. Boston Red Sox

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$400,780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$91,915
N/A
N/A
$48,123
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,637
N/A
N/A
$24,822
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 11.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,358
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 12.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$47,331
N/A
N/A
$21,671
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 12.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,851
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 38

Description

This event group covers a single MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET. Markets span moneyline, spreads, over/under totals (full game and first 5 innings), first-inning scoring, extra innings, and various run-line thresholds across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical resolution methodology: official MLB statistics as primary source, credible reporting consensus as fallback, 24-hour publication window, and 50-50 resolution for canceled games without makeup. All markets reference the same game and schedule source.Primary resolution logic: Official MLB final statistics as published on MLB.com; credible reporting consensus if official statistics not available within 24 hours of game conclusion

Core resolution logic:

  • Moneyline (Polymarket): Nationals win resolves to Nationals; Red Sox win resolves to Red Sox; tie or cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50
  • Spreads (Polymarket): Full-game spreads resolve based on final score margin; first-5-inning spreads resolve based on score at end of 5th inning; ties resolve against the spread holder
  • Over/Under Totals (Polymarket & Kalshi): Full-game O/U resolves on combined final runs; first-5-inning O/U resolves on combined runs through end of 5th inning; threshold is inclusive (e.g., O/U 9.5 = Over if 10+ runs)
  • First Inning Run (Polymarket): Resolves Yes if any run scored in 1st inning by either team; No if zero runs in 1st inning
  • Extra Innings (Polymarket): Resolves Yes if game extends beyond 9 innings; No if completed in regulation; 50-50 if game ends in tie before extra innings
  • Postponement Protocol: All markets remain open until game completion; check home team (Red Sox) schedule on MLB.com for makeup game date
  • Cancellation Protocol: If game canceled entirely with no makeup game, all markets resolve 50-50

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Postponed Game: Market remains open until the game is completed. Bettors must check the Red Sox home schedule on MLB.com to identify the makeup game date.
  • Canceled Game (No Makeup): All markets resolve 50-50 if the game is canceled entirely and no makeup game is scheduled.
  • Tie Game (Moneyline & Spreads): Moneyline resolves 50-50. Spread markets resolve against the spread holder (e.g., Nationals -1.5 resolves to Red Sox if tied).
  • Tie Game (Extra Innings Market): If game ends in a tie before extra innings are played, the market resolves 50-50.
  • Official Stats Delay: If MLB does not publish official final statistics within 24 hours of game conclusion, resolution falls back to consensus of credible reporting sources.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the game concludes and official MLB statistics are published (or within 24 hours via credible reporting consensus). First-5-inning markets resolve after the 5th inning is completed. Moneyline, spreads, and totals resolve after the final out of the game.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 29 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Washington vs Boston game scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT will be evaluated for total combined runs scored by both teams. Resolution occurs if the collective run total exceeds specified thresholds, ranging from 2.5 runs to 12.5 runs. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome, with resolution to Yes if the final combined score surpasses the stated threshold.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets reflect pure trader consensus—no house edge. This market aggregates outcomes across decentralized and regulated venues, which typically converge toward fair value faster than traditional books, especially as event day approaches. Comparing this market's odds to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value: if prediction traders are more bullish or bearish than the book, that gap often reflects information asymmetry or different risk appetites worth investigating.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different prices for the same matchup due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and market microstructure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket attracts global retail traders and often sees higher volume, while Kalshi's regulated US-focused audience may price in different risk premiums or have access to different information flows. Liquidity imbalances also matter: a large order on one platform can move the price more than on another, creating temporary arbitrage windows. These gaps typically narrow closer to resolution as informed traders exploit mispricings.

Key catalysts include roster changes, injury announcements, recent team performance, and head-to-head matchup history. Weather conditions on game day often shift odds for baseball, as wind and temperature affect ball flight. Betting action from sharp money can also trigger repricing across both platforms. Line movement on major sportsbooks sometimes precedes prediction market shifts, so tracking those gaps may give you an edge. Team momentum, starting pitcher form, and any late-breaking news closer to game time will likely drive final price discovery.