TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
predict
polymarket

Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$135,460

Washington Nationals

 - Polymarket

Washington Nationals - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 7:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Washington Nationals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Yes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$133,175
N/A
N/A
$97,782
Settled
No
predict

Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles

View
N/A
N/A
—
$2,542
$1,916
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baltimore Orioles

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$168
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the same MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles scheduled for June 26-27, 2026. The markets span different scopes: whether any run scores in the first inning (Kalshi), the full-game winner (Predict), and the score leader after exactly 5 innings (Polymarket).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three separate markets with non-overlapping resolution scopes (inning 1 binary, full-game winner, 5-inning snapshot) and conflicting scheduled dates (Jun 26 vs Jun 27). Each platform resolves independently on different game states.Hero tip: Treat these as three independent markets. Kalshi is a first-inning prop, Predict is a full-game moneyline, and Polymarket is a 5-inning spread snapshot. Verify the official MLB.com schedule to reconcile the Jun 26 vs Jun 27 discrepancy before settlement. Use official MLB box scores and inning-by-inning scoring as the tiebreaker across all three.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: First-inning binary event. Resolves Yes if either team scores any run in inning 1; No otherwise. Scheduled Jun 26, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT. Quote: 'If either team scores a run in the first inning of the Washington vs Baltimore professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 26, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Predict: Full-game winner market. Resolves to Nationals if Nationals win, Orioles if Orioles win, or 50-50 if postponed indefinitely, canceled, or tied. Scheduled Jun 27, 2026 at 7:05 PM ET. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.'
  • Polymarket: 5-inning score snapshot. Resolves to Nationals if leading after inning 5, Orioles if leading after inning 5, or Draw if tied after inning 5. Scheduled Jun 27, 2026 at 7:05 PM ET. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for June 27 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If either team scores a run in the first inning of the Washington vs Baltimore professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 26, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for June 27 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on a different mechanism than traditional sportsbooks. Rather than a bookmaker setting fixed lines, traders on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi continuously buy and sell shares, allowing odds to shift fluidly based on real-time information and collective sentiment. Sportsbooks typically embed a margin and adjust lines to balance action, while prediction markets reflect pure trader conviction. This market's odds may diverge from sportsbook spreads because traders incorporate different data sources, risk appetites, and time horizons than professional oddsmakers.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity profiles, and fee structures that influence pricing. Polymarket and Kalshi may weight the same underlying information—pitcher stats, weather, recent team performance—differently based on their user base's expertise and risk tolerance. Arbitrage opportunities between the two platforms can persist if transaction costs or withdrawal delays make it uneconomical for traders to instantly equalize prices. Temporary divergences often close as informed traders exploit the spread, but structural differences in platform design mean some price gaps remain normal.

Key catalysts include starting pitcher announcements, bullpen availability, weather conditions at game time, and recent offensive trends for both teams. Injury reports or last-minute roster changes can significantly shift expectations for early-inning scoring. Pregame commentary from analysts and sharp money flowing into either side of the market often signals new information. Additionally, historical head-to-head matchup data and ballpark factors—such as wind direction or field dimensions—may prompt repricing as game time nears. Real-time updates during warm-ups can trigger final adjustments before the first pitch.