TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty
kalshi
polymarket

Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty

Volume:
$3,833,832

Washington

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 19, 10:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Washington

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,015,291
N/A
N/A
$695,357
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$172,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 168.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 167.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,923
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,577,475
N/A
N/A
$909,633
Settled
No
polymarket

Spread -11.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -12.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -13.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,173
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks which team will win the WNBA game between the Washington Mystics and New York Liberty. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability stands at 71.0% for the winning outcome. Resolution will be determined by the official final score as recorded on WNBA.com, including overtime if applicable. Watch for the game's conclusion on June 19, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, which will trigger settlement across both platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market logic is internally contradictory: both possible outcomes (Washington win and New York win) are mapped to the same resolution value (Yes), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket uses standard binary categorical resolution (team name). These structures are incompatible.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's market until the resolution logic is clarified. The current specification violates basic binary market principles. Polymarket's market is structurally sound and resolvable. Contact Kalshi support to confirm whether there is a separate No market or if this is a documentation error.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Both Washington win and New York win resolve to Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot distinguish between outcomes. Quote: 'If Washington wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If New York wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Market resolves to the name of the winning team: either 'Washington Mystics' or 'New York Liberty'. Includes postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split) edge cases. Quote: 'If the Washington Mystics win, the market will resolve to Washington Mystics. If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to New York Liberty.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for June 19 at 7:30PM ET: If the Washington Mystics win, the market will resolve to "Washington Mystics". If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to "New York Liberty". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the final result of the Washington vs New York women's professional basketball game originally scheduled for June 19, 2026. A Yes resolution occurs if either New York or Washington wins the game. The resolution is determined by the official final score of the contest.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here differ from traditional sportsbooks in that traders directly set prices through supply and demand rather than oddsmakers adjusting lines for balanced action. Sportsbooks typically embed a margin and adjust odds to manage liability, while prediction markets reward accurate forecasting with direct payouts. This market's odds reflect aggregated trader conviction across multiple platforms, often converging toward consensus as new information emerges closer to game time.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities due to variations in user base, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders on one platform may react faster to breaking news, or liquidity constraints on a smaller venue can cause temporary price gaps. These spreads typically narrow as the event approaches and arbitrage traders exploit the difference, but timing, platform-specific incentives, and user demographics all influence short-term divergence.

Key catalysts include player injuries or roster updates, recent team performance trends, and head-to-head matchup history. Lineup announcements closer to game day often trigger sharp price movement as traders incorporate new information. Public betting patterns, weather conditions if relevant, and any late-breaking news about team form or player availability can all shift implied probabilities. Monitor official team communications and sports news outlets for developments that may reshape trader expectations.