TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 5:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory in the first quarter of a football game between two teams. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either team to determine the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the first quarter of the designated football game. Each market has a specific threshold that must be exceeded by either the Philadelphia Eagles or the Washington Commanders to resolve as 'Yes.' If the winning team exceeds the stated margin of victory during the first quarter, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' Only points scored during the first quarter count toward these markets. All markets are independent, and each threshold represents a different level of point differential, allowing for varied predictions of how decisively one team may lead in the opening quarter. The governing league's official scoring and game records will determine the resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe the Eagles are more likely to cover the spread, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It's common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event, as they aggregate diverse information and perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the two possible outcomes: the Commanders winning the first quarter by over 2.5 points, or the Eagles winning. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in the market, and it’s constantly updated as new information becomes available and opinions shift.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the first quarter of the WAS Commanders versus PHI Eagles game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official first quarter spread as determined by official league statistics. The market will then settle to 100 for the winning side and 0 for the losing side, paying out to contract holders accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game begins. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Commanders or the Eagles would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could move the market. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, might also play a role, although the market ultimately reflects the willingness of traders to put their money where their mouth is.