TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 6:12 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will lead by a specific margin at halftime in an upcoming football game. Outcomes depend entirely on the point difference between the two teams when the first half concludes.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders at the end of the first half of their scheduled game on September 13, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets labeled 'PHI Eagles wins 1H by over X points' resolve to Yes if Philadelphia wins by more than the stated margin, while markets labeled 'WAS Commanders wins 1H by over X points' resolve to Yes if Washington wins by more than the stated margin. Only points scored during the first half count toward these determinations. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to No. The markets are independent, meaning each evaluates its specific margin requirement separately without influence from other markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregate predictions of informed traders. Often, you’ll find that this market incorporates information and perspectives not fully captured by sportsbooks, potentially leading to different probabilities assigned to various outcomes. However, as game time approaches, these odds tend to converge as more information becomes available and market participants refine their assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the first half spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. Buyers are essentially betting that the spread will be as they predict, while sellers are betting against it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in a particular outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first half spread of the Commanders versus Eagles game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL, and the market will settle to 100 for the outcome that matches the actual spread. Any discrepancies will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures for ensuring accurate and reliable resolution of events.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Commanders or the Eagles would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the perceived advantage of either team. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could move the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, indicating strong conviction from informed traders, could also lead to price fluctuations.