TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - More Markets
Volume:
$521,966
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market group covers multiple total goals outcomes and a both-teams-to-score prop for the Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina World Cup Europe Qualifiers match on March 26, 2025 at 3:45 PM ET. The markets span over/under thresholds at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 combined goals, plus a binary on whether both teams score at least one goal each during regulation play.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi differ fundamentally in market scope and resolution logic. Polymarket offers four total-goals markets (O/U 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) and a Both Teams to Score market, all resolving on combined goal totals. Kalshi offers four margin-of-victory markets, each resolving on the winning team's goal differential, creating entirely different settlement outcomes for the same match.Hero Tip:
These are not comparable markets. Polymarket bettors are predicting total goals scored; Kalshi bettors are predicting margin of victory. A 2-1 Wales win resolves Over on Polymarket's O/U 1.5 but Yes on Kalshi's Wales >1.5 margin market—but these are different bets with different odds and risk profiles. Do not assume positions on one platform hedge positions on the other.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves all four markets on combined goal totals (Over/Under thresholds at 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 goals), plus a Both Teams to Score binary. Example: O/U 1.5 resolves Over if combined goals >= 2, Under if < 2. Primary source is UEFA official statistics within 2 hours of match end, with credible reporting as fallback. 'This market will resolve to Over if Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina combine to score 2 or more goals in this game.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves all four markets on margin of victory (goal differential), with two markets for each team at two different thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals). Example: Bosnia >2.5 resolves Yes if Bosnia wins by 3+ goals; Wales >1.5 resolves Yes if Wales wins by 2+ goals. No explicit fallback source or timing window is stated. 'If Bosnia and Herzegovina wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina professional FIFA World Cup Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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