TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 8:54 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Mettraux and Alisa Oktiabreva in the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marie Mettraux' if Marie Mettraux advances against Alisa Oktiabreva. This market will resolve to 'Alisa Oktiabreva' if Alisa Oktiabreva advances against Marie Mettraux. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Mettraux and Alisa Oktiabreva in the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marie Mettraux' if Marie Mettraux advances against Alisa Oktiabreva. This market will resolve to 'Alisa Oktiabreva' if Alisa Oktiabreva advances against Marie Mettraux. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs with real capital. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the market perceives information differently or has access to unique insights. It's common to see convergence as the event approaches, but divergences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective prediction. This creates a dynamic and efficient way to forecast the result of the Santa Margherita di Pula tennis match, based on the aggregated knowledge of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Marie Mettraux versus Alisa Oktiabreva tennis match in Santa Margherita di Pula. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official tournament results to understand how this market will ultimately settle.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. News regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could all shift expectations. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to this event might also impact perceived probabilities. Even broader factors like weather forecasts for Santa Margherita di Pula could play a role, especially if they are expected to affect playing conditions. Any information that alters the perceived likelihood of either player winning is likely to cause movement in this market.