TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 9, 8:53 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Esther Lopez Alcaraz and Marianna Argyrokastriti in the W35 Reus, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Esther Lopez Alcaraz' if Esther Lopez Alcaraz advances against Marianna Argyrokastriti. This market will resolve to 'Marianna Argyrokastriti' if Marianna Argyrokastriti advances against Esther Lopez Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Esther Lopez Alcaraz and Marianna Argyrokastriti in the W35 Reus, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Esther Lopez Alcaraz' if Esther Lopez Alcaraz advances against Marianna Argyrokastriti. This market will resolve to 'Marianna Argyrokastriti' if Marianna Argyrokastriti advances against Esther Lopez Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to balance their liabilities and ensure profit, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when there’s significant public interest or disagreement about the likely winner. Examining these differences can reveal insights into where the crowd believes sportsbooks might be mispricing the event.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders exchange positions, creating a real-time assessment of the match's potential results. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, indicating increased confidence in that result.
This market resolves around Sep 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the W35 Reus match between Esther Lopez Alcaraz and Marianna Argyrokastriti. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on publicly available and verified information regarding the match’s completion and official results. The outcome will be determined by the official result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in coaching strategies for either Esther Lopez Alcaraz or Marianna Argyrokastriti could significantly shift probabilities. Unexpected announcements about match conditions or venue changes could also impact the market. Finally, general shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding the players’ chances of winning could drive trading volume and price fluctuations in this market.