TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 9:55 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tian Jialin and Esther Lopez Alcaraz in the W15 Badalona, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tian Jialin' if Tian Jialin advances against Esther Lopez Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Esther Lopez Alcaraz' if Esther Lopez Alcaraz advances against Tian Jialin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tian Jialin and Esther Lopez Alcaraz in the W15 Badalona, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tian Jialin' if Tian Jialin advances against Esther Lopez Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Esther Lopez Alcaraz' if Esther Lopez Alcaraz advances against Tian Jialin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. Examining these differences can be insightful, but remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of success. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is driven entirely by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the Tian Jialin vs Esther Lopez match.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the W15 Badalona tennis match between Tian Jialin and Esther Lopez Alcaraz. The platform will verify the result against widely available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could shift the odds. Unexpected results in other matches involving either player might also affect perceptions. Furthermore, significant betting activity or analysis from prominent tennis commentators could sway the market. As the match approaches, real-time updates during the event itself, such as set scores and key moments, will likely cause rapid price fluctuations.