TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 2, 11:13 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Esther Lopez Alcaraz and Sophie Greiner in the W15 Badalona, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Esther Lopez Alcaraz' if Esther Lopez Alcaraz advances against Sophie Greiner. This market will resolve to 'Sophie Greiner' if Sophie Greiner advances against Esther Lopez Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Esther Lopez Alcaraz and Sophie Greiner in the W15 Badalona, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Esther Lopez Alcaraz' if Esther Lopez Alcaraz advances against Sophie Greiner. This market will resolve to 'Sophie Greiner' if Sophie Greiner advances against Esther Lopez Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess the probability of an outcome. If a large number of traders believe an outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. This can create opportunities for arbitrage or simply a more accurate reflection of the true probabilities, based on the wisdom of the crowd.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Lopez Alcaraz vs Greiner match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective intelligence of the traders on Polymarket, and any significant shifts in price can indicate new information or changing sentiment regarding the match.
This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the W15 Badalona match between Esther Lopez Alcaraz and Sophie Greiner. The platform will verify the result against reliable sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual match result, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official tennis reporting for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes to playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader trends in women's tennis, could also play a role. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could cause short-term price fluctuations, reflecting a change in conviction about the likely winner of the Lopez Alcaraz vs Greiner match.