TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Taylor Swift
- Kalshi
Taylor Swift - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Closed: Sep 27, 10:42 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of the Video of the Year award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, specifically whether Taylor Swift will win. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 67.0% chance of Taylor Swift taking home the award. Resolution will be based on the official announcement from the MTV Video Music Awards website (https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. Keep an eye on the nominations announced in July 2026, as they will significantly shape the market’s final probabilities before the award show on September 28, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms rely on the official MTV Video Music Awards announcement to determine the winner, and both specify a tie-breaking mechanism and a failsafe for no winner being declared.Primary resolution logic: Official MTV Video Music Awards website (https://www.mtv.com/vma) and live broadcast of the award ceremony.Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' for the artist/song if they win the Video of the Year award.
- If a nominated video is not officially nominated, the market resolves to 'No'.
- In case of a tie, the video title listed first alphabetically wins.
- If no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Nominee Exclusion: If a listed nominee is not officially nominated for the Video of the Year award, the corresponding market will resolve to 'No'.
- No Award Declared: If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
- Tiebreaker: In the event of a tie for the winner, the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the winner.
Polymarket
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The markets resolve to Yes if the respective artist wins the Video of the Year award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. Each market is specific to a particular artist or a tie outcome. All markets include a secondary rule clarifying that they are not endorsed by the MTV Video Music Awards and that any references to the awards are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement between the awards and the market platform.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and risk tolerance, which can influence trading behavior. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $480,959 overall—can impact price discovery. Differences in fees or trading limits could also contribute to discrepancies. These factors create independent price signals, even though both platforms address the same underlying question regarding the VMA Video of the Year.