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VMA Song of the Year 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Which song will win VMA Song of the Year?

Volume:
$296,715

BTS

 - Kalshi

BTS - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 10:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

BTS

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$44,962
N/A
N/A
$23,736
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Swim (BTS)

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
6.5¢
N/A
$7,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ella Langley

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60,271
N/A
N/A
$34,602
Settled
No
kalshi

Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,352
N/A
N/A
$25,378
Settled
No
kalshi

RAYE

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,492
N/A
N/A
$20,448
Settled
No
kalshi

HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,023
N/A
N/A
$17,686
Settled
No
kalshi

PinkPantheress

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,843
N/A
N/A
$15,044
Settled
No
kalshi

Olivia Dean

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,807
N/A
N/A
$15,672
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,522
N/A
N/A
$10,865
Settled
No
polymarket

Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter)

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,152
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Where Is My Husband! (Raye)

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,486
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Man I Need (Olivia Dean)

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Golden (Huntrix)

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 42

Description

This event group forecasts the winner of the Song of the Year award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards (VMAs). The markets allow users to bet on specific songs or a general 'other' outcome winning the prestigious award.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket focuses on specific song titles, while Kalshi focuses on the artist winning with any song.Hero tip: Consider the granularity of each platform's markets. Polymarket requires the exact song to win, while Kalshi only requires the artist to win.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if the *exact* song listed wins Song of the Year. Includes a tie-breaker rule based on alphabetical order of song titles and a 'Other' resolution if no winner is declared by a specific date.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if the listed artist wins Song of the Year with *any* song. Also includes a market for a tie.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year. If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The markets resolve to Yes if the specified artist or group wins the Song of The Year award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. Each market corresponds to a unique potential winner, including individual artists, collaborations, and a tie scenario. All markets explicitly state that they are not endorsed by the MTV Video Music Awards, and any references to the event or its trademarks are used descriptively rather than indicating affiliation or endorsement by MTV or the awards organization. The outcome is determined solely by the official announcement of the Song of The Year winner at the ceremony.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or rely on subjective assessments, whereas this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders who have 'skin in the game'. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as traders are incentivized to make informed decisions. While analyst predictions can be valuable, the real-time price discovery process within this market provides a dynamic and potentially more accurate gauge of the likely outcome for the VMA Song of the Year.