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VMA Best New Artist 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win VMA Best New Artist?

Volume:
$188,809

Sienna Spiro

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 10:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sienna Spiro

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50,916
N/A
N/A
$24,723
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Sienna Spiro

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

CORTIS

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,641
N/A
N/A
$22,409
Settled
No
polymarket

Cortis

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,284
N/A
N/A
$8,241
Settled
No
kalshi

Malcolm Todd

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,282
N/A
N/A
$7,987
Settled
No
polymarket

Malcolm Todd

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bella Kay

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,944
N/A
N/A
$8,149
Settled
No
polymarket

Bella Kay

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$492
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnus Ferrell

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,585
N/A
N/A
$8,642
Settled
No
polymarket

Magnus Ferrell

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Stella Lefty

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,921
N/A
N/A
$7,737
Settled
No
polymarket

Stella Lefty

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Myles Smith

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,342
N/A
N/A
$3,804
Settled
No
polymarket

Myles Smith

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$408
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 42

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the Best New Artist award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The markets allow users to bet on specific artists or a general 'other' outcome. Resolution depends on the official announcement of the winner by MTV.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms rely on the official MTV announcement of the Best New Artist winner for resolution, with a tie-breaking rule based on alphabetical order.Primary resolution logic: Official MTV Video Music Awards website (https://www.mtv.com/vma) and live broadcast of the award ceremony.

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' for the artist officially announced as the winner of the Best New Artist award.
  • In case of a tie, the artist whose name comes first alphabetically is considered the winner.
  • If no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Nominee Exclusion: Polymarket specifies that if an artist wasn't officially nominated when nominees were announced, their market immediately resolves to 'No'. This is consistent with the overall logic, as a non-nominated artist cannot win.
  • No Award Given: If the award is not given in 2026, the market will resolve to 'Other' by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official announcement of the Best New Artist winner at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, but no later than December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best New Artist. If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best New Artist when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if the specified artist wins the Best New Artist award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. Each rule corresponds to a different potential winner, including solo artists and a tie outcome. All secondary rules clarify that the markets are descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation by the MTV Video Music Awards or Kalshi.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the dashboard for the VMA Best New Artist market tracks the probabilities of various artists winning the award, as determined by traders. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $188,809, with $74,725 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of who is most likely to win, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. The dashboard displays these probabilities and volume data, offering a real-time assessment of the evolving predictions for the VMA Best New Artist award. This allows users to see how sentiment shifts over time.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective factors or biases, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individuals, creating a more objective assessment. While analyst predictions can be valuable, the dynamic pricing in this market reflects real-money stakes, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts. The wisdom of the crowd often corrects for individual biases, and the market’s efficiency can quickly incorporate new information as it becomes available. This can result in odds that diverge from, or converge with, expert opinions.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any major news regarding the nominated artists – such as album releases, chart performance, critical acclaim, or significant media appearances – could shift probabilities. Social media buzz and fan engagement are also important indicators. Unexpected endorsements or controversies surrounding the artists could also cause price movements. Furthermore, any changes in the perceived competitiveness of the nominees, based on industry analysis or public opinion, could influence trading activity and alter the odds in this market.