TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
VMA Artist of the Year 2026
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win VMA Artist of the Year?

Volume:
$212,888

Madonna

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 9:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Madonna

View
100%
51%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$45,666
N/A
N/A
$23,815
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Madonna

View
100%
58%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,487
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Taylor Swift

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,789
N/A
N/A
$29,523
Settled
No
polymarket

Taylor Swift

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,778
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ariana Grande

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ariana Grande

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,386
N/A
N/A
$22,082
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,035
N/A
N/A
$6,660
Settled
No
kalshi

Sabrina Carpenter

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,577
N/A
N/A
$5,332
Settled
No
polymarket

Sabrina Carpenter

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bruno Mars

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,023
N/A
N/A
$3,897
Settled
No
polymarket

Bruno Mars

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Morgan Wallen

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,861
N/A
N/A
$1,661
Settled
No
polymarket

Morgan Wallen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

L

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 40

Description

This event group forecasts the winner of the Artist of the Year award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The markets allow users to bet on specific artists winning the award, or on a tie occurring. Resolution hinges on the official announcement of the winner by MTV.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms consistently define resolution based on the official MTV announcement of the Artist of the Year, with a clear tie-breaking mechanism.Primary resolution logic: Official MTV Video Music Awards website (https://www.mtv.com/vma) and broadcast.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the artist officially announced as the winner of the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year in 2026.
  • In the event of a tie, the artist whose name comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.
  • If no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the markets will resolve to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Nominee Status: If an artist listed on Polymarket was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to 'No'.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official announcement of the Artist of the Year award at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, but no later than December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed artist who wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year. If an artist was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Artist of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated artist whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The markets resolve to Yes for any participant—whether individual artists or a tie—who is officially declared the Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. Each market corresponds to a specific potential winner, with all markets clearly stating that neither Kalshi nor the listed products are endorsed by the MTV Video Music Awards. References to the award show are used descriptively and do not imply any formal partnership or sponsorship between the parties involved. The resolution hinges solely on the public announcement of the winning artist or outcome during the televised ceremony.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, such as those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts frequently rely on subjective assessments and biases, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individuals with skin in the game. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as traders are incentivized to make informed decisions. However, it's important to remember that both approaches have limitations; analyst forecasts can incorporate qualitative factors, while this market primarily reflects quantitative trading activity. The current volume of $212,888 suggests considerable interest in this event.