TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Volume:
$344,080
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Wednesday, April 29, 2026 between Vissel Kōbe and Cerezo Ōsaka.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market contains a logical contradiction: it resolves YES on cancellation, which violates the mutually exclusive three-outcome structure (Kōbe win / Draw / Cerezo win). Kalshi's single market is a tautology that resolves YES for any match outcome, making it a game-occurrence bet rather than an outcome bet.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Polymarket draw market until the platform clarifies the cancellation clause. It is currently unresolvable under standard logic. Kalshi's market is only useful for betting on whether the match occurs; it provides no outcome discrimination.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Kōbe win, Draw, Cerezo win) covering all possible outcomes. CRITICAL FLAW: Draw market states 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve YES' — this contradicts the mutual exclusivity of the three outcomes and creates an impossible state where a canceled game is simultaneously 'a draw' and 'not a Kōbe win' and 'not a Cerezo win.'
- Kalshi: Single market: 'If Cerezo wins OR Tie wins OR Kobe wins... then resolves YES.' This is a logical tautology covering all possible match outcomes. The market effectively bets on game occurrence, not outcome, since any actual result triggers YES. No cancellation clause provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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