TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Virtus Bologna vs. Paris Basketball
Volume:
$697,410
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of the Euroleague basketball game between Virtus Bologna and Paris Basketball scheduled for March 31, 2026 at 2:45 PM EDT. The winner of the game determines the market resolution, with specific provisions for postponements and cancellations.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure resolves YES for both possible outcomes (Virtus Bologna win OR Paris Basketball win), creating a logical contradiction that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures the market as a binary outcome where exactly one team resolves as the winner.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution logic is contradictory — it states the market resolves YES if Virtus Bologna wins AND also resolves YES if Paris Basketball wins, meaning YES is guaranteed regardless of outcome. This violates basic market logic. Polymarket's structure is sound: one team wins and resolves to that team's name, the other resolves to the winner's name. Trade only on Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Market contains a logical contradiction. Both resolution conditions state the market resolves to Yes: 'If Virtus Bologna wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Paris Basketball wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This guarantees YES regardless of game outcome, making the market unresolvable as a meaningful prediction instrument.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Market correctly structures as a binary outcome where the market resolves to the name of the winning team ('Virtus Bologna' or 'Paris Basketball'), with explicit handling for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). This is standard and logically sound.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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