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406,065

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Virtus Bologna vs. Paris Basketball
kalshi
polymarket

Virtus Bologna vs. Paris Basketball

Volume:
$697,410

Paris Basketball

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 31, 5:45 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Paris Basketball

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$222,758
N/A
N/A
$144,949
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Virtus Bologna vs. Paris Basketball

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$303,121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Virtus Bologna

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$171,531
N/A
N/A
$87,018
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market resolves based on the outcome of the Euroleague basketball game between Virtus Bologna and Paris Basketball scheduled for March 31, 2026 at 2:45 PM EDT. The winner of the game determines the market resolution, with specific provisions for postponements and cancellations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure resolves YES for both possible outcomes (Virtus Bologna win OR Paris Basketball win), creating a logical contradiction that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures the market as a binary outcome where exactly one team resolves as the winner.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution logic is contradictory — it states the market resolves YES if Virtus Bologna wins AND also resolves YES if Paris Basketball wins, meaning YES is guaranteed regardless of outcome. This violates basic market logic. Polymarket's structure is sound: one team wins and resolves to that team's name, the other resolves to the winner's name. Trade only on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Market contains a logical contradiction. Both resolution conditions state the market resolves to Yes: 'If Virtus Bologna wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Paris Basketball wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This guarantees YES regardless of game outcome, making the market unresolvable as a meaningful prediction instrument.
  • Polymarket: Outlier: Market correctly structures as a binary outcome where the market resolves to the name of the winning team ('Virtus Bologna' or 'Paris Basketball'), with explicit handling for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). This is standard and logically sound.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.