TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 6:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming soccer match between Vincent Grenadines and French Guiana. It focuses on whether either team might secure a decisive win by exceeding specific goal differentials. The outcome hinges purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event centers on determining whether Vincent Grenadines or French Guiana achieves a victory margin exceeding specified thresholds in their CONCACAF Nations League match scheduled for September 26, 2026. Four distinct outcome scenarios are evaluated: Vincent Grenadines winning by more than 2.5 goals, Vincent Grenadines winning by more than 1.5 goals, French Guiana winning by more than 1.5 goals, and French Guiana winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty outcomes. The markets operate independently of official CONCACAF affiliations, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Examining these differences can provide valuable insight into public sentiment and potential value opportunities, though it is important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring; a higher price indicates a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can place limit orders to buy or sell at specific prices, or market orders to execute trades immediately at the best available price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as conditions change, all driven by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score of the Vincent Grenadines vs French Guiana match will be used to determine the winner, and whether the spread was covered. The resolution will be based on official results as reported by recognized sports authorities. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market at the time of resolution, reflecting the accuracy of their predictions.
Several signals could move this market before Sep 27, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions would likely impact trading activity. Significant shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, any updates on weather conditions or the playing venue could influence traders' assessments of the likely outcome. A large volume of trades in one direction could also indicate a strong shift in sentiment and move the market accordingly.