TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol - More Markets
Volume:
$334,843
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market group covers the La Liga match between Villarreal CF and Real Sociedad de Fútbol scheduled for March 20, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Markets span multiple betting formats: point spreads (±1.5 and ±2.5 goal margins), total goals over/under (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5), and a both-teams-to-score prop. All markets resolve based on the official final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different market structures to cover the same underlying event. Polymarket offers spread markets with explicit thresholds (-1.5, -2.5 goals) and over/under totals, while Kalshi uses a combined binary structure that resolves YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, creating different outcome mappings for identical final scores.Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets, note that a 3-0 Real Sociedad win resolves YES on all Kalshi markets but only YES on Polymarket's Real Sociedad (-2.5) and Real Sociedad (-1.5) spreads. Conversely, a 2-0 Real Sociedad win resolves YES only on Polymarket's Real Sociedad (-1.5) and certain Kalshi markets. Verify your position's outcome against the specific platform's threshold before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures markets as directional spreads (Real Sociedad -1.5, -2.5; Villarreal -1.5, -2.5), over/under totals (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 combined goals), and a both-teams-to-score binary. Each market resolves independently based on its specific threshold. For example, a 2-0 Real Sociedad win resolves YES on Real Sociedad (-1.5) but NO on Real Sociedad (-2.5). Resolution source is 'the official final score published on laliga.com' with a 2-hour fallback to credible reporting.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi combines spread outcomes into a single binary structure: the market resolves YES if either Real Sociedad wins by more than 2.5 goals OR Villarreal wins by more than 2.5 goals OR Real Sociedad wins by more than 1.5 goals OR Villarreal wins by more than 1.5 goals. This means a 2-0 win by either team resolves YES, whereas Polymarket's equivalent markets (-1.5 spreads) would resolve YES only for the winning team. Kalshi does not specify a fallback source or 2-hour window; it references 'the Real Sociedad at Villarreal professional La Liga soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 20, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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