TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF
Volume:
$2,691,323
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the La Liga match between Villarreal CF and Elche CF scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets are offered on three mutually exclusive outcomes: Villarreal win, draw, or Elche win, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only). The group aggregates resolution logic from Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation scenario creates logical inconsistency in Kalshi's three-market structure. Kalshi resolves all three mutually exclusive outcomes to Yes if match is canceled, which is logically impossible. Polymarket handles cancellation more coherently by resolving win markets to No and draw market to Yes.Hero Tip:
Monitor for any cancellation announcements closely. If the match is canceled with no makeup game, Kalshi's market design creates an unresolvable state (all three outcomes cannot simultaneously be Yes). Polymarket's approach is more rational but still unusual. Traders should clarify with platform support before match date if cancellation risk is material.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Offers three separate binary markets (Villarreal win, Draw, Elche win), all resolving Yes if their respective outcome occurs. Cancellation clause states all three resolve to Yes if match is canceled entirely with no makeup game. This creates a logical impossibility since outcomes are mutually exclusive. Resolution source: official La Liga statistics.
- Polymarket: Offers three separate markets with clear cancellation logic: Villarreal win and Elche win markets resolve No if canceled; draw market resolves Yes if canceled. This is more logically coherent but still unusual. Resolution source: La Liga official statistics, with credible reporting consensus as fallback if official data unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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