TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,458,898,561
416,584
Markets across
31,652
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,653
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
40+
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 5, 2026
Time left: 04d:22h:09m
Will "Verity" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
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Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of the movie “Verity” achieving a Tomatometer score of at least 40% on Rotten Tomatoes. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 97.7% probability that the film will meet this threshold. This prediction market will resolve based on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score as of October 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the film’s critical reception following its release, with the Tomatometer score being finalized on October 5, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets have thresholds that are strictly *above* a given score, while Polymarket markets resolve if the score is *at least* a given score. Kalshi also has a wider range of thresholds.Hero tip: Consider the slight difference in thresholds when trading. A score of exactly 50 will resolve 'Yes' on Polymarket but 'No' on Kalshi.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to 'Yes' if the Tomatometer score is at least a specified value (40, 50, 60, 70, or 80). Question: Will "Verity" score at least [X] on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the Tomatometer score is strictly above a specified value (45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, or 90). "If Verity has a Tomatometer score of above [X] on Oct 5, 2026..."
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Verity is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on October 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
The markets evaluate whether the film Verity achieves specific Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer scores above designated thresholds by October 5, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from above 45 to above 90. For any given market to resolve as 'Yes,' Verity's Tomatometer score on that date must strictly exceed its respective threshold; for example, a score of 75 would not satisfy a market requiring 'Above 75.' All markets are determined on the Monday following the film's wide release. Importantly, these markets and related products are not endorsed by Rotten Tomatoes; references to the platform are purely descriptive and indicate no formal affiliation or endorsement by Rotten Tomatoes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially outperforming individual analyst forecasts. While film critics provide subjective reviews, this market aggregates diverse opinions into a quantifiable probability. Analysts may be influenced by studio relationships or personal biases, whereas the financial incentives within a prediction market encourage participants to make objective assessments. Discrepancies can arise if analysts haven't fully incorporated all available information or if the market anticipates a surprising critical or audience response. Tracking both provides a more holistic view of potential outcomes.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Verity Rotten Tomatoes score market can diverge due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sources. Trading volume and liquidity levels also differ between the two venues, impacting price discovery. Furthermore, subtle variations in market design or fee structures can contribute to discrepancies. These differences are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets, where prices constantly adjust based on new information and participant behavior. The current spread is 4.7.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final, verified Rotten Tomatoes score for 'Verity' is publicly available. The resolution will be based on the Tomatometer score reported by Rotten Tomatoes, representing the percentage of positive reviews from approved critics. The outcome is determined by the score as reported by Rotten Tomatoes and is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders should monitor Rotten Tomatoes for the official score release to understand the final result of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Early reviews from film festivals or pre-release screenings will heavily influence trading activity. Positive or negative buzz on social media and in entertainment news outlets will also play a role. Any major marketing campaigns or unexpected controversies surrounding the film could shift expectations. Furthermore, the release of trailers and promotional materials can shape public perception. Shifts in sentiment related to the director, cast, or genre could also move the market, as traders adjust their predictions based on evolving information.