TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
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events
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4,377
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63%
12-13m
- Polymarket
12-13m - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 12, 2026
Closed: Oct 12, 5:52 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day second weekend (October 9 - 11) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day second weekend (October 9 - 11) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the second weekend box office of Verity. While analysts often rely on pre-release buzz and comparable film data, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively putting capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the market and analyst predictions can highlight areas where traders believe analysts are over- or underestimating the film's potential performance, or where new information hasn't yet been fully incorporated into traditional models.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, meaning that if more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system that reflects the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official second weekend box office numbers for Verity are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported domestic gross revenue for the film’s second weekend in theaters. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their predictions align with the actual results once the official figures are released. This allows for a clear and transparent determination of the market’s outcome.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Critical reviews released closer to the second weekend, particularly if they differ substantially from initial reactions, could impact attendance. Unexpected news about the film's stars or director could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, competitor releases during the same period might affect Verity’s box office performance. Any significant changes in public interest, as measured by social media trends or ticket pre-sales, are also likely to influence trading activity and the overall pricing of this market.
