TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
NAZA
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NAZA - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 12, 2026
Closed: Sep 12, 5:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Nelson san, anata ha hito wo koroshimashitaka? (Mr. Nelson, Did You Kill People?)
Description
The Venice Film Festival is a prestigious international event celebrating cinematic achievements. Each year, it awards various prizes to films that embody exceptional artistry and storytelling. The Special Jury Prize is one such accolade, recognizing outstanding contributions in filmmaking that may not fit into other specific categories.
Kalshi
The outcome of these markets is determined by whether a specified film wins the Special Jury Prize at the 83rd Venice Film Festival. Each market corresponds to a different film as the potential recipient of this award. If the designated film is announced as the winner of the Special Jury Prize during the festival, the associated market resolves positively (Yes). If no film wins the Special Jury Prize, or if a different film wins it, all markets resolve negatively (No). The secondary rules clarify that these markets are independent of any official endorsement from the Venice Film Festival, serving purely descriptive purposes without implying affiliation or approval from the festival organizers.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a more nuanced view of contender strengths because traders react instantly to new information. While analysts may issue periodic updates, market prices adjust continuously, incorporating a broader range of signals — from early buzz to critical reviews. This can lead to divergence, especially when insider insights or surprise entries shift perceptions in the run-up to the ceremony.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner is officially announced at the festival and verified against credible public sources. The result is based solely on the ceremony’s final decision, ensuring transparency and alignment with real-world events. No internal platform mechanisms determine the settlement — only the publicly confirmed winner.
Key signals that could shift this market include early reviews from critics attending the festival, statements from jury members, last-minute drops or additions to the shortlist, and media coverage highlighting particular films. Any indication that a specific entry has gained favor — whether through buzz, awards buzz, or prestigious endorsements — may cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess probabilities ahead of the final announcement.
