TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether over 4.5 total goals will be scored in the Venezia versus Fiorentina professional Serie A soccer game. Currently, the probability of over 4.5 goals being scored on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on whether more than 3.5 goals are scored after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result of the match. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves based on the outcome of the fixture originally scheduled for September 11, 2026, with final resolution expected by September 12, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the total number of goals scored by both teams combined in the Venezia vs Fiorentina professional Serie A soccer match originally scheduled for September 11, 2026. The resolution occurs after the full 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time added by the referee, but explicitly excludes any goals scored during extra time or penalty shootouts. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 0.5 to 5.5 goals), and resolves to 'Yes' if the total goals exceed that threshold. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately. All markets share the same underlying event — the official Serie A match result — and all are subject to the same timing and scoring conditions. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all league trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of each market. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, especially as the event approaches. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs are correct. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of the event's potential.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result—the total number of goals scored in the Venezia vs Fiorentina match—will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official match data and will be independently verified. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total goals will receive a payout based on the market price at the time of resolution. It's important to monitor official sources for the final score.
Several factors could influence this market before the match concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Venezia or Fiorentina would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also shift the market. Late-breaking team news, such as starting lineups, can also lead to price adjustments. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can influence the price, reflecting shifts in market sentiment as traders react to new information.