TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 2:01 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a J2 League soccer match between Vanraure Hachinohe FC and Tegevajaro Miyazaki, forecasting whether either team will win or if the match will end in a draw. Currently, the consensus probability of Tegevajaro Miyazaki winning on September 18, 2026 is 100.0%. This forecast aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will be resolved using Official J.League statistics (jleague.jp) with Flashscore, Sofascore, and credible reporting as fallbacks. Keep an eye on the match itself on September 18, 2026, to see if this prediction holds true as the game progresses.
This event is for the upcoming J2 League game, scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 between Vanraure Hachinohe FC and Tegevajaro Miyazaki.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Vanraure Hachinohe versus Tegevajaro professional Japan J2 League soccer match scheduled for September 18, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three possible outcomes are considered: Vanraure Hachinohe win, Tegevajaro win, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team securing a victory within regular time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game end in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price following the platform's guidelines. The resolution strictly adheres to the result determined by official match records, without regard to any affiliations or endorsements from the governing league or its associated entities.
Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can differ from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbooks, especially when there is significant information asymmetry or a strong emotional component influencing the event. The volume on this market is currently $397,948.
Prices for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to differing opinions on the likely outcome. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules of Polymarket and Kalshi can influence trading behavior and, consequently, prices. These differences are normal and create opportunities for arbitrage.