TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 12:29 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track various point-spread outcomes for an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on the margin of victory for either team. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which one team must win for the contract to settle favorably. The markets collectively offer a range of possible outcomes based on the expected competitiveness of the game.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Valparaiso vs Murray St. college football game scheduled for September 12, 2026. If Murray St. wins by exceeding the specified point threshold in any market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Conversely, if Valparaiso wins by exceeding its respective threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. For markets where Valparaiso is the favorite (winning by over 2.5, 6.5, 10.5, or 14.5 points), a Yes outcome requires Valparaiso to meet or exceed those margins. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, all open markets remain active and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Kalshi, aims to reflect the true probability of the spread, potentially offering more favorable odds. However, it's important to remember that both prediction markets and sportsbooks are subject to differing information and biases, so discrepancies can occur. Examining both can provide a more well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the Valparaiso vs Murray St. spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are influenced by news, analysis, and overall sentiment surrounding the teams and the game itself, all synthesized by the traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Valparaiso vs Murray St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the game's progress and any relevant news leading up to the final score.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Valparaiso or Murray St. teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news or analysis concerning the teams' strategies or matchups could also drive movement. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market up until the game’s conclusion.