TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Map 2 Winner
- Polymarket
Map 2 Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
Closed: Jun 15, 2:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5)
Intro
This market tracks the round differential in Map 3 of the Valorant Best-of-3 match between XLG Gaming and EDward Gaming at VCT Masters London Playoffs. Aggregated across Limitless, Kalshi, and Polymarket, the consensus probability for EDward Gaming to win Map 3 by more than 8.5 rounds stands at 99.6%. Results will be resolved using official vlr.gg reporting, with credible consensus reporting including video evidence as backup if vlr.gg does not publish within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the Upper Bracket Semifinal 1 matchup scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET to determine the final round count.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless) apply identical core logic: match must complete by rounds played to resolve to a winner or round metric; forfeits/disqualifications/walkovers resolve 50-50 unless match is completed; cancellation or 7-day delay without completion resolves 50-50; vlr.gg is primary source with credible consensus fallback.Primary resolution logic: Official vlr.gg (https://vlr.gg); credible consensus reporting including video evidence if vlr.gg does not publish within 2 hours of event conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Match must be played to completion with a final winner determined by rounds actually played (not forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default) for binary match outcome markets to resolve to a team.
- Individual map winner markets (Map 1, Map 2, Map 3) resolve to the team that wins that map only if the map is completed by rounds played; otherwise 50-50.
- Round total markets (Over/Under thresholds for each map) resolve based on combined rounds played on that map, including overtime, only if the map is completed by rounds played; otherwise 50-50.
- Round handicap markets (e.g., EDward Gaming -2.5 vs XLG Gaming +2.5) resolve to EDward Gaming if they win by 3+ rounds; otherwise XLG Gaming, provided the map is completed by rounds played; otherwise 50-50.
- Games Total (O/U 2.5) resolves Over if 3+ maps are played; Under if fewer than 3 maps are played; maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count if match is completed.
- Map Handicap (EDG -1.5 vs XLG +1.5) resolves to EDward Gaming if they win 2+ more maps than XLG Gaming; otherwise XLG Gaming; maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count if match is completed.
- If match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from scheduled date without a winner determined, all markets resolve 50-50.
- If match begins but is not completed and one team wins due to opponent forfeiture/disqualification/walkover, match outcome market resolves to the winning team; all other markets (map-specific, round-specific) resolve 50-50.
- Team name discrepancies (abbreviations, alternate spellings, sponsor tags, regional identifiers, minor formatting) are treated as referring to the same team if the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified; otherwise 50-50.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Forfeit/Disqualification/Walkover Before Match Starts: Match outcome market resolves 50-50. All map-specific and round-specific markets resolve 50-50.
- Match Begins, One Team Forfeits Mid-Series: Match outcome market resolves to the team declared winner. All map-specific and round-specific markets for incomplete maps resolve 50-50. Completed maps resolve based on actual rounds played.
- Clinching Map (Map 3) is Forfeited: Match is considered completed. Games Total and Map Handicap markets count the forfeited map. Map 3-specific markets (winner, rounds) resolve 50-50.
- Exact Round Threshold (e.g., exactly 20.5 rounds): Over/Under markets with exact threshold resolve 50-50.
- vlr.gg Unavailable Within 2 Hours: Credible consensus of reporting (including video evidence) is used as fallback source.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between XLG Gaming and EDward Gaming in the VCT Masters London Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 15 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "XLG Gaming" if XLG Gaming win the match against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against XLG Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
The XLG Gaming vs. EDward Gaming Valorant match is scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT as part of VCT Masters London 2026. Resolution is determined by the official match result: if XLG Gaming wins the match, their associated market resolves to Yes; if EDward Gaming wins the match, their associated market resolves to Yes. The match outcome is final as declared by the official VCT tournament organizers and broadcast.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between XLG Gaming and EDward Gaming in the VCT Masters London 2026, scheduled for Jun 15, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 15, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct market microstructure rules, user bases, and liquidity profiles. Kalshi uses an order-book model with tighter spreads and regulatory oversight, while Polymarket employs an automated market maker, which can create different equilibrium prices. Timing lags in cross-platform arbitrage, regional trader preferences, and platform-specific fee structures all contribute to temporary divergence. Additionally, each venue attracts different trader demographics—some favor Kalshi's compliance framework, others prefer Polymarket's volume and accessibility. These price gaps typically narrow as informed traders exploit arbitrage opportunities, but they can persist if liquidity is uneven or if traders on one platform hold stronger convictions about the outcome.
Several catalysts can shift odds before the match begins. Roster announcements, player injuries, or last-minute lineup changes will trigger repricing as traders reassess team strength. Scrim results and recent tournament performance—especially from regional qualifiers or warm-up events—often influence sentiment. Coach statements, team morale reports, and social media activity can also sway perception. Closer to match day, official broadcast confirmations, map pool reveals, and pre-game analyst commentary typically drive final adjustments. In-match momentum swings during the series itself will cause real-time volatility if this market remains open during play. Monitor esports news outlets and team social channels for breaking updates that could reshape trader conviction.
