TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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VARREL
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 16, 2026
Closed: Jul 16, 12:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: VARREL (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Secret (-2.5) vs VARREL (+2.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Secret (-2.5) vs VARREL (+2.5)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: VARREL (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: VARREL (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5)
Description
This event group covers a best-of-three Valorant match between Team Secret and VARREL in the VCT Pacific Group Omega, scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. Markets span individual map winners, round totals, handicaps, overall match winner, and games total, with resolution sourced primarily from vlr.gg.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All three platforms (Polymarket, Limitless, Kalshi) apply identical match-outcome logic, map-completion requirements, forfeit handling, and vlr.gg sourcing with consistent 7-day cancellation and 2-hour fallback windows.Primary resolution logic: Official vlr.gg records; consensus of credible reporting (including video evidence) if vlr.gg does not publish within 2 hours of event conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Match Winner: Team Secret wins if they win 2+ maps; VARREL wins if they win 2+ maps. If match is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days without play, ends in tie, or ends by forfeit/disqualification/walkover at match level, resolve 50-50.
- Map Winner (Map 1, 2, 3): Resolves to the team that wins that map if map is completed with a winner determined. If map is not played, not completed, or decided by forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolve 50-50.
- Map Round Totals (Over/Under thresholds): Resolves Over/Under based on combined rounds played if map is completed to conclusion. If map is not played, not completed, or decided by forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolve 50-50. Exact threshold (e.g., 21.5) resolves 50-50.
- Map Handicaps (e.g., VARREL -2.5): Resolves to VARREL if VARREL wins that map by 3+ rounds; otherwise resolves to Team Secret. Requires map completion with actual rounds played; forfeit/disqualification/walkover resolves 50-50.
- Games Total (Over/Under 2.5): Resolves Over if 3+ maps are played; Under if fewer than 3 maps played. Maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count toward total if match is completed. If match is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or incomplete mid-match forfeit, resolve 50-50.
- Map Handicap Series (VARREL -1.5): Resolves to VARREL if VARREL wins 2+ more maps than Team Secret; otherwise Team Secret. Forfeits/disqualifications/walkovers count if match is completed. If match is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or incomplete forfeit, resolve 50-50.
- Team name matching: Minor discrepancies, abbreviations, sponsor tags, and formatting differences are treated as referring to the same team if the intended team can be clearly identified. Ambiguous or non-matching names resolve 50-50.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Match begins but not completed; one team forfeits mid-series: Match-level markets (overall winner, games total, map handicap series) resolve 50-50. Individual map markets resolve based on whether that specific map was completed with rounds played.
- Map is completed but match is later forfeited/disqualified: Map-specific markets (map winner, map round totals, map handicaps) resolve based on the completed map round score, regardless of later match-level forfeit or disqualification.
- Match is delayed beyond 7 days from July 16 without play beginning: All markets resolve 50-50.
- vlr.gg does not publish results within 2 hours of event conclusion: Consensus of credible reporting (including video evidence) is used as fallback resolution source.
- Round total is exactly at threshold (e.g., Map 1 total rounds = 21.5): Market resolves 50-50.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Secret and VARREL in the VCT Pacific Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 16 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Secret" if Team Secret win the match against VARREL. This market will resolve to "VARREL" if VARREL win the match against Team Secret. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the official outcome of the scheduled VCT Pacific 2026 match between VARREL and Team Secret on July 16, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time, resolves to fair market price. If cancelled before play begins or forfeited before any play occurs, resolves to fair market price. If play begins and the match is subsequently forfeited, resolution follows the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Team Secret and VARREL in the VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026, scheduled for Jul 16, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 16, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin; prediction markets let traders themselves determine prices through supply and demand. This often means prediction markets react faster to breaking news and reflect real-time sentiment more directly than fixed sportsbook lines. For this match, comparing the implied probabilities across venues can highlight where sharp traders see value. Prediction market odds tend to be more efficient over time, though sportsbook odds may offer tighter spreads on high-volume events.
Team roster changes, player injuries, or last-minute lineup announcements can shift odds significantly before the match begins. Recent performance data—win streaks, map pool strengths, head-to-head records—often triggers repricing as traders update their models. Betting syndicates and sharp money flowing into one side can also move prices rapidly, signaling where informed traders see value. During the match itself, early map results and momentum swings will drive real-time adjustments. Keep an eye on official team statements, scrim results, and community sentiment to stay ahead of market moves.
