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Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Shopify Rebellion Black vs Evil Geniuses Academy?

Volume:
$95,439

Shopify Rebellion

 - Kalshi

Shopify Rebellion - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 7:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Shopify Rebellion

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,434
N/A
N/A
$29,916
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30,873
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map Handicap: SRB (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses Academy (+1.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Shopify Rebellion Black (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses Academy (+2.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Shopify Rebellion Black (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses Academy (+2.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Evil Geniuses Academy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,899
N/A
N/A
$15,022
Settled
No
polymarket

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Shopify Rebellion Black (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses Academy (+2.5)

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 51¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 51¢
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event group covers a Best-of-3 Valorant match between Shopify Rebellion Black and Evil Geniuses Academy in the VCL North America Stage 3 Playoffs, scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span match winner, individual map winners, round handicaps, round totals, and games totals across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All Polymarket markets and the Kalshi match-winner market apply identical resolution logic: official vlr.gg source, 7-day cancellation threshold, 50-50 for incomplete maps or forfeits, and consistent team name matching allowing for sponsor tags and academy designations.Primary resolution logic: vlr.gg official match results; credible reporting consensus with video evidence if vlr.gg unavailable within 2 hours post-match

Core resolution logic:

  • Match winner resolves to the team winning 2 maps first in the BO3 format
  • Individual map winners resolve only if that map is played to completion with actual rounds determined
  • Map round handicaps (e.g., -2.5 / +2.5) resolve based on final round differential if map is completed; otherwise 50-50
  • Map round totals (Over/Under 21.5) resolve based on combined rounds if map is completed; otherwise 50-50
  • Games total (O/U 2.5) resolves to Over if 3 maps are played, Under if fewer than 3 maps are played
  • Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default count toward match completion and map totals, provided the match is completed
  • If match is canceled, not played within 7 days, or ends in a tie, all markets resolve 50-50
  • If match begins but is incomplete with one team winning by opponent forfeiture/disqualification/walkover before clinching, match-winner resolves 50-50; map-specific markets resolve 50-50 if that map is not completed
  • Team name matching allows for sponsor tags (e.g., Shopify Rebellion Black vs SRB), academy designations, and minor formatting differences, provided the team is unambiguously identifiable

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Incomplete match with forfeiture before clinch: If the match begins but one team forfeits before winning 2 maps, the match-winner market resolves 50-50. However, any map that was completed to conclusion resolves based on that map's actual result.
  • Map completed but match later forfeited: If a map is played to completion with rounds determined, that map's markets resolve based on the completed round score, regardless of any later forfeit or walkover in subsequent maps.
  • Exact round differential of 2.5: Round handicap markets with -2.5 / +2.5 threshold require a 3+ round differential for the favored team to win. A 2-round differential resolves to the underdog side.
  • Exact round total of 21.5: Over/Under 21.5 markets resolve 50-50 if the combined round total is exactly 21.5 (e.g., 11-10.5 is impossible in Valorant, but the rule applies if a combined total equals 21.5).
  • 7-day delay without play: If the match is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled July 3 date without any play beginning, all markets resolve 50-50.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon match completion (when one team wins 2 maps) or upon determination that the match will not be played. Map-specific markets resolve upon completion of that individual map or upon determination that the map will not be played. Primary source (vlr.gg) must publish results within 2 hours of match conclusion; if unavailable, credible reporting consensus applies.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between Shopify Rebellion Black and Evil Geniuses Academy in the VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion Black" if Shopify Rebellion Black win the match against Evil Geniuses Academy. This market will resolve to "Evil Geniuses Academy" if Evil Geniuses Academy win the match against Shopify Rebellion Black. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

If Evil Geniuses Academy wins the VCL North America: Stage 3 2026: Evil Geniuses Academy vs. Shopify Rebellion Valorant match originally scheduled for Jul 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shopify Rebellion wins the VCL North America: Stage 3 2026: Evil Geniuses Academy vs. Shopify Rebellion Valorant match originally scheduled for Jul 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on real-money trading, where odds emerge from supply and demand rather than a sportsbook's fixed lines. This market-driven pricing often reflects sharper, more dynamic assessments than traditional sportsbooks, especially for esports events where mainstream betting coverage is limited. Prediction market participants include professional traders, team analysts, and informed fans who continuously update positions based on new information. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set odds to balance liability and extract margin. For this matchup, comparing prediction market consensus to any available esports betting lines can reveal where sophisticated traders diverge from bookmaker pricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different user bases with varying levels of esports expertise or risk appetite. Order flow timing and market depth differences mean one platform may react faster to roster news, scrim results, or community sentiment than the other. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but friction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent instant convergence. Monitoring both venues helps you identify whether price differences reflect genuine disagreement or temporary liquidity imbalances worth trading against.

Roster changes, player injuries, or last-minute substitutions announced before the match can shift odds significantly, especially if a key player is unavailable. Recent scrim results, team form, and head-to-head records will influence trader positioning as the event approaches. Community sentiment on social media and esports forums often precedes price moves, particularly if one team is perceived as undervalued. Map pool strategy reveals and coach interviews may provide tactical clues that alter win probability. Finally, any official league updates regarding format changes or scheduling adjustments could trigger repricing across both platforms.